Climate Change and the Future of Sailing

Earth's climate and oceans are changing. What does human-induced climate change mean for the future of sailing?
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Earth's climate and oceans are changing. What does human-induced climate change mean for the future of sailing? We review the latest climate change literature to summarize important impacts climate change may have on our oceans. We also explore how these changes may impact the sailing community.

Read to the end for steps you can take to reduce your own climate footprint, resources to learn more about climate change, and ocean conservation organizations and sailing teams working to accelerate our transition to a fossil-free future.

Climate Change is Not a New Problem

In the 1850s Eunice Foote, an amateur scientist, experimented with glass cylinders filled with different gasses. She found that the sun heated those cylinders with “carbonic acid gas” (carbon dioxide) more than others.1https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.4.20210823a/full/

“The receiver containing this gas,” she wrote, “became itself much heated—very sensibly more so than the other—and on being removed, it was many times as long in cooling. An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature…”2https://archive.org/details/mobot31753002152491/page/381/mode/2up?view=theater
Foote's groundbreaking findings would foreshadow the discovery of Earth's greenhouse effect decades later by John Tyndall.3https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/happy-200th-birthday-eunice-foote-hidden-climate-science-pioneer

Today, of course, we know that human-induced climate change is caused by the release of greenhouse gasses, such as carbon dioxide and methane. Widespread burning of fossil fuels, particularly coal, oil, and natural gas, leads to more of these gasses in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere block heat from escaping, and thus leads to more global heating.4https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

Human-caused climate change is now widely recognized as the most important challenge facing the future of life on Earth.5https://www.ipcc.ch/

Scientists now regularly measure the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. In May 2022, the Scripps Institute of Oceanography measured levels of CO2 in the atmosphere exceeding 421 ppm at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, USA. This was a new record. Unfortunately, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted globally continues to increase every year.

Climate change: CO2 Concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Source: Scripps CO2 Program
CO2 Concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Source: Scripps CO2 Program

According to the World Meteorological Association (WMO), the years 2015 to 2021 were the seven warmest years on record.

The world's oceans are particularly at risk from human-caused climate change. These impacts include ocean warming, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and changes to marine ecosystems.6https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf

Well known sailor Jimmy Cornell, author of numerous books, including the widely-respected World Cruising Routes and World Cruising Essentials, noted that he is often asked about climate change at speaking at his seminars on voyage planning. He wrote that his answer to these questions is always the same: as far as he sailors are concerned, climate change is happening and as a result, global weather conditions are changing as well.

What are the implications of increasing greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere? In its most recent 2022 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that human-induced climate change has already caused widespread impacts and damage to nature and people. These impacts often disproportionately affect the most vulnerable people and systems.7https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf

So what does the latest science say about the impacts of climate change on issues that are important to sailors?

Rising Temperatures

The IPCC, in its most recent report (AR6), provides overwhelming scientific evidence that humans unequivocally have caused the earth’s climate to warm. The report authors conclude human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, have likely contributed 0.8 to 1.3 degrees Celsius (1.44 to 2.34 degrees Fahrenheit) to global mean temperature since the late 1800s, and heatwaves continue to break records around the world.8https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22080

According to the US National Center for Environmental Information, for the period January-April, the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2007, with the last eight years (2015–2022) recording the eight warmest January-April temperatures in the 143 years that records exist.9https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204 The year 2022 is likely to rank among the ten warmest years on record.10https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204

Global land and ocean temperature anomalies for the period January-April by year. Source: NOAA NCEI
Global land and ocean temperature anomalies for the period January-April by year. In 2022, the January–April global surface temperature was 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th-century average and ranked as the fifth-highest in the 143-year record. Source: NOAA NCEI.

Ocean temperatures also continue to warm. According to WMO, almost all of the world's oceans experienced at least one “strong” marine heatwave in 2021.11https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22080

Ocean Acidification

The ocean absorbs almost one quarter of the annual emissions of the carbon dioxide emitted by humans into the atmosphere.12https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22080 This carbon dioxide reacts with seawater to create ocean acidification. As the pH (acidity) of the ocean decreases, the capacity of the ocean to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere declines.13https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=22080

The IPCC reports that ocean surface pH is now the lowest (most acidic) it has been for 26,000 years.

Declining Sea Ice Extent

One dramatic and visible impact of climate change is the loss of sea ice. In February 2022, Antarctic sea ice hit another record-low minimum. Sea ice area dropped below 772,000 square miles (1.9 million square kilometers) for the first time since satellite observations began over four decades ago.14https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctic-sea-ice-hit-a-record-low-now-scientists-think-they-know-why/

Glaciers in Antarctica have been experiencing record melting for years. Massive icebergs are also calving from Antarctic ice sheets. In 2021, for example, a 1,667-square-mile (4,320 square kilometer) iceberg called A-76 broke off.15https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/worlds-largest-iceberg-breaks-off-of-antarctica/ Calving icebergs are a normal phenomenon. However, this Rhode Island-sized iceberg is representative of a growing number of massive icebergs that are breaking off in part due to climate change.

study published in 2022 in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences points to a perfect storm of factors causing recent Antarctic sea ice declines. Some involve natural climate cycles, while others may be influenced by human-caused climate change.

According to a paper published by Jinfei Wang and colleagues in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, one factor influencing sea ice extent near Antarctica is the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), a permanent stormy condition off the coast of West Antarctica. The ASL was recently strengthened by La Niña conditions and other climate fluctuations.16https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctic-sea-ice-hit-a-record-low-now-scientists-think-they-know-why/

Another factor is the heating of oceans because of climate change. In 2021 the Southern Ocean experienced some of the highest levels of measured long-term warming.17https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctic-sea-ice-hit-a-record-low-now-scientists-think-they-know-why/

The combination of long-term ocean warming and a strong ASL likely contributed the conditions that led to the record melting.18https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctic-sea-ice-hit-a-record-low-now-scientists-think-they-know-why/

How about the northern hemisphere? In a paper published in 2022 in Geophysical Research Letters, Chao Min and colleagues report that ordinary ships will soon be able to sail in the Arctic. This is because the Arctic is warming at least three times faster than the rest of the world. As a result, sea ice is thinning and declining dramatically. Other factors also affect navigation. These factors include ocean depth, winds and fog, waves and cyclones, and icebreakers and other infrastructure. However, the study suggest that shipping may occur year-round in the Arctic Ocean by 2070 under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Sailing, the Arctic Ocean, and climate change
Climate change will cause sea ice extent to decline, extending where and when sailing will be possible in the Arctic Ocean.

The bottom line for sailors? In the southern hemisphere, declining sea ice extent and more icebergs will set up new opportunities and challenges for sailors. In the northern hemisphere, low sea ice extent will continue to expand the length of time sailing will be possible in the Arctic Ocean. Year-round sailing for some boats may be possible within fifty years.

Climate Change and Severe Storms

Sailors have always had to navigate storms. Is climate change altering the frequency and severity of severe storms?

In recent years scientists have used evidence from satellites, aircraft, ground measurements, and climate model projections to better understand how climate change may be influencing extreme weather.19https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/

The atmosphere is complex, and linking specific storms to climate change is difficult. However, there is growing evidence that warming of Earth's atmosphere and oceans is leading to more storms and more severe storms, such as hurricanes.20https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/

What are hurricanes? According to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, hurricanes are large rotating tropical storms with winds in excess of 74 miles per hour (119 kilometers per hour.21https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/ocean-topics/ocean-human-lives/natural-disasters/hurricanes/ These major storms are called hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, typhoons in the western Pacific Ocean, and cyclones in the Indian Ocean.22https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/

How does climate change influence severe storms? Hurricanes gain energy from heat in the top layers of the ocean. Sea surface temperatures greater than 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius) enable hurricanes to form and grow.23https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/ As ocean temperatures continue to rise, there may be more “fuel” for hurricanes and other tropical storms.

For example, when storms pass over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the storms may intensify rapidly. This is because warm currents in these locations create loops of warm water that fuel the storms. Once the storms move over land they begin to weaken.24https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/did-you-know/how-does-the-ocean-affect-storms/

How damaging are hurricanes? Major hurricanes are considered the world’s most expensive natural weather disasters.25https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/

What causes variations in storms? In the North Atlantic, the number and intensity of storms changes over the span of decades. These multidecadal variations in tropical storms and hurricanes are linked to a natural phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), formerly known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.26https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1060040 The underlying cause of the of this variability continues to be debated by climate scientists, including the relative contribution of human-caused emissions, volcanic activity, and the variability of naturally-occurring ocean circulation patterns.27https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/can-we-detect-change-atlantic-hurricanes-today-due-human-caused#hur1-1 Another source of uncertainty is whether apparent increases in storm frequency are a result of more storms or simply better observation technology.28https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/can-we-detect-change-atlantic-hurricanes-today-due-human-caused#hur1-1

However, in the most recent IPCC report (AR6), the report authors conclude that “Event attribution studies and physical understanding indicate that human-induced climate change increases heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (high confidence) but data limitations inhibit clear detection of past trends on the global scale.”

Are tropical cyclone rainfall rates projected to increase? Yes, tropical cyclone rainfall rates are projected to increase in the future because of anthropogenic warming according to the IPCCC. For example, in a scenario where the Earth warms by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), models project increases of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of storms.29https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Importantly, tropical cyclone intensities globally are also projected to increase on average by 1% to 10% under model projections for 2 degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming. This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential of each storm.30https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ At the same time, the proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is also projected to increase.31https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

However, in a summary of recent literature, Christopher Landsea, Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Weather Service's (NWS) National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, and Tom Knutson, Senior Scientist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey, conclude that, “A detectable greenhouse gas-induced influence on observed Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane behavior to date is difficult to identify because of the 50-80 year variability in hurricane activity.”32https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/can-we-detect-change-atlantic-hurricanes-today-due-human-caused#hur1-1

The bottom line? While more research is needed to tease apart the diverse reasons for changes in tropical cyclone activity, warming of the surface ocean because of human-induced climate change is indeed likely increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones.33https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-probably-increasing-intensity-tropical-cyclones

North Atlantic Hurricanes

How does hurricane intensity vary in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific regions?

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.34https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ The Atlantic basin as defined by NOAA includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico–all popular sailing destinations.

Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity from NOAA https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
The number of hurricanes (yellow), and combined named storms and hurricanes (red) that occur on each calendar day over a 100-year period in the Atlantic Basin. The chart is based on data from the 77-year period from 1944 to 2020. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. SOURCE: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

NOAA found that between 1995 and 2019 there were 17 above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons. These were measured using the intensity of a hurricane seasons and the number, wind speed, and duration of tropical cyclones. This was a record for above-normal seasons.35https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/

Eastern Pacific Hurricanes

According to NOAA, the eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30. The eastern Pacific basin is defined by NOAA as extending from Mexico and Central America westward to 140 degrees west longitude.36https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/ From 1991 to 2020, the average eastern Pacific hurricane season had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.37https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/

Eastern Pacific hurricane and tropical storm activity from NOAA
The number of hurricanes (yellow), and combined named storms and hurricanes (red) that occur on each calendar day over a 100-year period in the Easter Pacific Basin. The chart is based on on data from 1971 to 2020. Most tropical cyclones in this region occur between late June and early October. SOURCE: NOAA Natural Hurricane Center

Can pollution influence tropical storms? A study published in Science by Hiroyuki Murakami and colleagues in 2022 showed that pollution in the form of aerosol particles can unexpectedly influence tropical storms. In North America and Europe, where pollution has declined over the last four decades, the study found that reduced pollution was responsible for an increase in the numbers of hurricanes and other tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic.

On the other side of the world, the opposite happened. In the Western North Pacific, where pollution increased as a consequence of rapid economic development in India and China, hurricane activity actually declined. This research reinforces the complexity of untangling how different human actions contribute to the number and intensity of storms.

Implications of Increasing Hurricanes for Sailors

So what do likely changes in storm intensity and frequency have for sailors?

  • More intense tropical cyclones are projected to increase in the future, bringing a greater proportion of storms having more damaging wind speeds, higher storm surges, and more extreme rainfall rates.38https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-probably-increasing-intensity-tropical-cyclones This will increase the need for sailors (and their sailing vessels) to be prepared for the increased intensity of storms in coming years and decades.
  • The latitude where tropical cyclones reach their peak strength has shifted farther north of the equator in the Northern Hemisphere and farther south in the Southern Hemisphere. This may change historic sailing and cruising routes.
The latitude where tropical cyclones reach their peak strength has shifted farther north of the equator in the Northern Hemisphere (top left) and farther  in the Southern Hemisphere (top right). SOURCE: NOAA.
The latitude where tropical cyclones reach their peak strength has shifted farther north of the equator in the Northern Hemisphere (top left) and farther in the Southern Hemisphere (top right). The top map shows changes in wind shear (pink) for August-October, the peak months for tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The bottom shows changes during January-March, the months of the Southern Hemisphere cyclone peak. Recent years have seen more shear (pink) in the deep tropics and less shear (green) at sub-tropical latitudes. SOURCE: NOAA.
Projected vertical wind shear during peak hurricane season. Map by NOAA Climate.gov
Projected vertical wind shear during peak hurricane season (August–October) in the late 21st century compared to late 20th century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at a relatively high rate. Reduced wind shear (blue areas) along the East Coast may increase the chances of rapid intensification of hurricanes before U.S. landfall. Map by NOAA Climate.gov. Image Source: NOAA based on data from Ting et al. 2019.

Climate Change and Sea Level Impacts

Global mean sea level reached a new record high in 2021. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that sea level rise has increased at an average rate of 4.5 mm (0.177 inches) per year over the period 2013 -2021.39https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/four-key-climate-change-indicators-break-records-2021 This is mainly due to the accelerated loss of ice mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

Sea level rise has implications for millions of people living near oceans, including increased risk of flooding and impact from storms.40https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/, 41https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/four-key-climate-change-indicators-break-records-2021  For example, NOAA estimates that by 2050, “moderate” (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur in many areas more than 10 times as often as it does today.

Sea level rise will also impact the sailing community. Much of the world's population lives near coastlines. Low-lying areas are already at risk of flooding, and this will only increase in coming years.

In Florida alone, approximately 2.4 million people and 1.3 million homes are located within 4 feet of the local high tide line.42https://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/floria-and-the-rising-sea

For example, mean sea level around Virginia Key, Florida, has risen by 8 inches since 1950 and is now increasing at a rate of about 1 inch (2.54 cm) about every three years.43https://sealevelrise.org/states/florida/

According to Jim Cason, the Former Mayor of Coral Gables, in three decades Florida will see many more days of flooding, stronger storms, more extreme weather, and as a result the potential for stagnant or declining coastal property values.44https://sealevelrise.org/states/florida/

Miami Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Broward County have planned to spend over US$1.5 billion in coming years on seawalls, pumps, raising roads, and storm water and sewage management plans.45https://sealevelrise.org/states/florida/ These changes may impact coastal real estate, roads, and sailing infrastructure like marinas and associated infrastructure.

in 2022, the City of Miami announced it is spending US$2 million to replace docks with floating concrete blocks at the Haulover Park and Marina because of rising sea levels.46https://boattest.com/article/rising-sea-level-threatens-marine-industry Private and public marinas will have to factor in similar costs for future upgrades.

In some regions, communities will need to discuss whether to consider “managed retreat” (or “community-led resettlement”) as sea levels rise and communities face increased risks from flooding, storms, saltwater intrusion, and other climate-related risks.47https://slate.com/technology/2022/04/managed-retreat-climate-change-language.html

Climate Change and Ocean Currents

Major ocean currents transport heat around the world. These currents help to regular global weather patterns. One of these currents, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is the current that transfers heat between the equator and the Arctic like a virtual conveyor belt. The AMOC is a major reason people living in Europe and the eastern United States experience relatively mild weather conditions.

Ocean circulation plays an important role in absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. Source: NASA Climate Change

However, a study published in 2022 in Nature Climate Change suggests that this giant “conveyer belt” appears to be slowing down and may be at its weakest point in the last 1,000 years.

Over time, if this trend continues and the current continues to slow, parts of the North Atlantic may cool, while areas farther south along the US East Coast may get warmer.48https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-major-ocean-current-is-at-its-weakest-point-in-1-000-years/

Why is this current slowing down? Natural variability may be one reason, but human-induced global warming is almost certainly a contributing factor as well.49https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-major-ocean-current-is-at-its-weakest-point-in-1-000-years/

What might this look like to a sailor? In Sailing in the Age of Climate Change, author and sailor John Kretschmer discusses how climate change has impacted the way he plans and conducts passages, including how he feels the trade winds and the Gulf Stream have changed in the last 30 years.

Ecological Impacts

Climate change is having devastating impacts on life in the world's oceans. Some of the most important impacts are affecting the world's coral reefs, fisheries, and numerous marine species of conservation concern.

Coral Reefs and Climate Change

Coral reefs are among the ecosystems most impacted from climate change. They are also among the most widely distributed. According to the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN), a global network of scientists, managers and organizations that monitor the condition of coral reefs, coral reefs occur in more than 100 countries and territories.

Coral reefs are already threatened by destructive fishing methods (like dynamite), recreational activities, pollution, invasive species, disease, and coastal development.50https://www.iyor2018.org/about-coral-reefs/threats-to-coral-reefs/ Climate change will add significant additional threats to these marine ecosystems.

How does climate change threaten coral reefs? According to NOAA, climate stressors include:51https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/coralreef-climate.html

  • Ocean warming causes thermal stress. As a result, coral bleaching events and infectious disease outbreaks are occurring more frequently.
  • Rising sea levels can increase sedimentation.
  • Stronger and more frequent storms can impact reef structure.
  • Changes in precipitation can increase runoff and reduce sunlight.
  • Altered ocean currents can change temperatures and connectivity among reefs.
  • Increasing ocean acidification decreases coral growth rates and structural integrity.

In Australia, in 2021-22 warming waters from climate change caused coral bleaching in 91% of reefs surveyed along the Great Barrier Reef.52https://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspui/bitstream/11017/3916/3/Reef-summer-snapshot-2021-22.pdf According to GCRMN, in the years between 2009 and 2018, the world lost an estimated 14% of all coral reefs, which is more than all the coral currently living on Australia’s coral reefs.53https://gcrmn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Executive-Summary-with-Forewords.pdf

And similar catastrophic impacts are not limited to Australia. According to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the coral reefs in the world's 29 reef-containing World Heritage sites may cease to exist by the end of this century if the world continues to emit greenhouse gases at current rates.54https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/coral-reefs-and-climate-change

Why are threats to coral reefs so important? Coral reefs are home to the highest amount of biological diversity of any ecosystem.55https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/coral-reefs-and-climate-change They also support an estimated 25% of all marine species.56https://gcrmn.net/2020-report/ These diverse ocean ecosystems also support coastal protection, food, and economic security for hundreds of millions of people around the world. The value of goods and services provided by coral reefs is estimated at US$2.7 trillion annually, including US$36 billion from coral reef tourism.57https://gcrmn.net/2020-report/

Fisheries and Climate Change

According to a paper published by Christopher Free and colleagues in Nature in 2022, climate change is already impacting the world’s fish populations. Climate change is reducing fish productivity, reducing sources of food, and altering the distribution of fish populations. This is important because the world's fisheries provide 17% of the world's meat supply.58https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2616-y

Fish are also on the move. In a study published in the journal Global Change Biology in 2022, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes and colleagues suggest that by 2030, nearly a quarter of the world's transboundary fisheries stocks will have shifted. This could have unexpected impacts on coastal communities dependent on these fisheries.59https://news.mongabay.com/2022/03/climate-change-set-to-upend-global-fishery-agreements-study-warns/

So what do these ecological impacts mean for sailors? For many cruisers, diving and snorkeling near coral is a big part of “island hopping” in the tropics. The devastating loss of coral in some regions, like the bleaching events in Australia's Great Barrier Reef, will impact tourism. It will also impact people reliant on these resources.

Impacts on People

The ocean is central to the economy and culture of millions of people around the world. Marine systems provide ocean-dependent communities with food, minerals, energy, and employment. Indeed, impacts on human health globally are among the most important consequences of global climate change.60https://www.amazon.com/Human-Health-Climate-Crisis-Carlson/dp/1284207293

According to the IPCC, numerous ocean and coastal ecosystems have experienced mass mortality events from heat waves. These ecosystems include coral reefs, rocky shores, kelp forests, seagrasses, and mangroves.61https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter03.pdf

These changes can be devastating for communities and countries reliant on these resources. For example, movement of fish stocks because of climate change can impact commercial, indigenous, and recreational fishing.62https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter03.pdf At the same time, the spread of marine pathogens because of climate change can influence fisheries and human health.

In 2015, Jessica Reilly and a friend sailed from the Sea of Cortez to the Caribbean via the Panama Canal. She describes the many interesting people they met along the way. In an article she described that most of the small communities they visited were already experiencing negative climate change impacts. People shared their concerns about warmer water, heavier and more erratic rainfall, and less reliable seasons.

Small islands are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Many small islands are low-lying. This means they are particularly susceptible to land loss from higher sea levels and changes in precipitation patterns and storms. This can threaten water and food security.63https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_SmallIslands.pdf

Tropical cyclones, storm surges, and wave impacts are already impacting many regions. Islands in particular are land constrained so a higher percentage of their population typically lives close to low-lying coastal regions.64https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_SmallIslands.pdf

Small islands are the “canary in the coal mine” of climate change. Coastal communities around the world are being impacted by the diverse consequences of human-caused climate change. Furthermore, changes in temperature and precipitation regimes impact everyone, not just people living near oceans.

The Future of Sailing and Climate Change

So what does this mean for sailors? As noted above, climate change is already impacting people who live in coastal communities. The frequency and intensity of severe storms is changing, as is sea ice extent, coral reefs, and fisheries. Many of these impacts are already visible–and will only become more severe in the future.

Sailing Organizations and Climate Change

A number of sailing organizations have recognized the importance of climate change. These organizations are responding in unique ways. One example is World Sailing (WS), the world governing body for the sport of sailing. The organization is officially recognized by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and has 144 Member National Associations.

In 2016 World Sailing established an ambitious plan for sailing to contribute to global sustainability. World Sailing's Sustainability Agenda 2030 sets out a bold ambition to achieve substantial environmental change within the sport. The Agenda 2030 document established a carbon reduction target. It also set a goal to cut emissions at events by 50 per cent by 2024.65https://sportsgazette.co.uk/sail-gp-racing-for-a-better-future/ World Sailing’s Sustainability Agenda 2030 also supports the International
Olympic Committee’s Sustainability Strategy and seeks to contribute to the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.66https://www.sailing.org/tools/documents/SustainabilityAgenda2030-%5B23247%5D.pdf

One example of an organization working to contribute to this goal is the Sail GP Impact League. Teams in the league use new technology to reduce carbon emissions and is committed to being 100% powered by renewable energy by 2025.67https://sportsgazette.co.uk/sail-gp-racing-for-a-better-future/

The Ocean Race is yet another example. Teams participating in The Ocean Race are helping scientists gather important data from some of the world's most remote regions. Sailors are gathering and reporting measurements of carbon dioxide, sea surface temperature, salinity, PH levels, chlorophyll a and other data.68https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/how-a-sailing-race-is-helping-to-explain-the-effect-of-the-climate-crisis-on-the-oceans/

How will Climate Change Impact Sailors?

From stronger storms to dead coral, many sailors are already experiencing the impacts of climate change on the world's oceans. Some impacts sailors are likely experience even more in the future include the following:

Changing coastlines and obstructions: As sea levels rise, familiar landmarks will also change. As BoatUS pointed out in a post on boating and climate change, this means swampy areas, rocks, sandbars, and other objects may become submerged. These changes will have implications for safety and navigation.

Changing ocean currents: As noted above, major ocean currents are changing speed because of climate change. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) current is showing signs of slowing. This current transfers heat between the equator and the Arctic. If this continues, parts of the North Atlantic may cool, while areas farther along the US East Coast may become warmer. Boaters will have to consider the implications of these ocean current changes while planning their cruises.

Changing sea ice extent: In the northern hemisphere, declining sea ice extent will expand the length of time sailing will be possible in the Arctic Ocean. In the southern hemisphere, glaciers holding the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in place are melting,69https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/watching-thwaites-glacier-calving-antarctica and increased calving of these major glaciers are changing the shape of mapped areas in Antarctica and, of course, contributing to rising sea levels around the world.

Coral Bleaching and loss of biological diversity: Ocean temperatures are rising and this is affecting many marine species and ecosystems. Among the most impacted are coral reefs. As noted above, coral bleaching is now widespread in many regions and this damage is likely to continue. Pollution, sedimentation, disease, and destructive fishing methods are already damaging breeding grounds for fish and marine mammals. Climate change will exacerbate these threats. This will have devastating impacts on biological diversity and may impact communities reliant on tourism.

Flooding and storm surges: Cities in Florida and elsewhere are already investing significant resources to manage rising sea levels, increased flooding, and damage from storms. In places like Florida, this will increasingly impact marinas, insurance rates, and coastal communities.

Frequency and intensity of storms: As noted above, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of storms. Modeling and predicting these changes will be complicated by many other factors. Some of these factors include onshore pollution (which may decrease storm intensity), El Niño/La Niña, and changing ocean currents. This uncertainty will make predicting weather windows based on past experiences more difficult, and make some passages riskier for sailors.

Health, welfare, and safety of people: Climate change is already having tremendous impacts on the health and safety of people living in the Artic, tropics, deserts, alpine communities, island communities, and everywhere in between. The IPCC‘s recent Sixth Assessment Report summarizes these threats in detail. The bottom line: millions of people are at risk from climate change. People living along coastlines and small islands are particularly at risk.

Of course, these are just a few of the impacts of climate change on oceans and ocean-dependent communities, including sailors. With each passing year, there will be increasing impacts on food systems, the global economy, biological diversity, and human health.

Reducing Your Emissions

If you are concerned about climate change you can work to reduce your own emissions. Importantly, you can also work with businesses, communities, and government agencies to support actions that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. You can also support not-for-profit organizations. There are many organizations promoting bold policies to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and efforts to support climate adaptation.

How Sailors can Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

According to an estimate from electricmotoryachts.com, if just 5% of the approximately 13 million registered boats in the United States repowered with electric motors, boaters would eliminate an estimated 1 billion pounds of CO2 emissions.70https://sailgreener.com/the-pros-cons-and-future-of-electric-yachts/ Examples of ways that sailors can help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions include:

  • Reduce what you build or use, reuse old materials, and recycle when you can.
  • Eliminate the use of diesel and gas engines by repowering to electric or relying on sail power alone.
  • For existing diesel and gas auxiliary power, make sure they are as efficient as possible and reduce motoring when it is safe to do so.
  • If you can renovate an older sailboat, you will eliminate the need to build a new one!
  • If you do buy a new yacht, consider a boatbuilder committed to producing more sustainable boats.
  • Size matters: smaller boats will generally have a smaller carbon footprint compared to comparable larger boats. Motorized mega yachts are not “sustainable.”
  • Can you add solar panels or wind turbines on your boat? Charging your boat using the sun and the wind will eliminate the need to use diesel auxiliary power.
  • How about batteries? Can you install or upgrade batteries that extend the amount of time you can sail without using fossil fuels?
  • Fly less. Global air travel and transport is responsible for an estimated 3.5 percent of emissions from human activities.71https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2667/Aviation-is-responsible-for-35-percent-of-climate-change-study-finds A single passenger travelling on a domestic flight in Britain, for example, may contribute to climate impacts equivalent to 254g of CO2 for every kilometer travelled, according the UK’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).72https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200218-climate-change-how-to-cut-your-carbon-emissions-when-flying If you can take a train, you will reduce your carbon impact. If you can walk or bike rather than drive, all the better! If you have to fly, try to reduce the number of flights you take. You can also consider sailing to your destination and let the wind do the work!
  • Support marinas, boatbuilders, and suppliers that support more climate-friendly sailing.
  • Support local, state/province, and national policies intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Consider supporting some of the many ocean and environmental conservation organizations working to support policies to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
  • Communicate with other sailors your concern for the environment and share strategies for reducing waste and reducing your carbon (and methane and other greenhouse gas) footprint.

How Ocean Shipping can Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

There is an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions in the marine shipping industry as well. If ocean shipping were a country, it would be the sixth-largest carbon emitter.73https://www.bbc.com/news/world-43714029 Ocean shipping releases more CO2 annually than Germany and accounts for approximately 2.2% of all global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the International Maritime Organization.74https://news.mongabay.com/2021/03/new-age-of-sail-looks-to-slash-massive-maritime-carbon-emissions/

Companies around the world are racing to reduce or even eliminate carbon emissions from their fleets. For example, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has adopted mandatory measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from international shipping. They do this through the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL). These measures include the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI), which is mandatory for new ships, and the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP).75https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/Technical-and-Operational-Measures.aspx

Organizations like Green Marine are developing voluntary environmental certification programs for the maritime industry. The goal of these programs is to incentivize environmental performance that exceeds those that are regulated by law.

Some companies are being more efficient with existing technology. Other companies are returning to traditional roots by deploying traditional sailing vessels. Yet others are experimenting with cutting-edge technology, like innovative sails and propulsion systems.

For example, Fair Transport, established in 2007, is a company with a mission to raise awareness of climate-friendly transportation. The company has an engineless sailing fleet and trades organic and traditionally crafted goods under wind power alone. Numerous other companies are also using “traditional” technologies or deploying cutting-edge new technologies.76https://news.mongabay.com/2021/03/new-age-of-sail-looks-to-slash-massive-maritime-carbon-emissions

New Dawn Traders works with partners to deliver goods with a near-zero carbon footprint. These partners include sail cargo companies, sailing vessels, and other “port allies” . EcoClipper is another example of a company developing fleets of sailing ships offering emission-free transport and travel worldwide. EcoClipper intends to have ships on shipping lines with fixed schedules. They hope this will create an entirely new shipping logistics system.

Organizations Working on Ocean Conservation and Climate

There are many extraordinary ocean conservation organizations working on climate change mitigation, adaptation, resilience, and other climate-related challenges. Some excellent organizations with links to oceans, sailing, and climate change (in alphabetical order) include:

Sailing Organizations and Teams with Sustainability Programs

Additional Sources of Information

For additional information about climate change, see:

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